Ontario Faces Tension Between Child Care Expansion and Affordability Targets

Ontario is currently negotiating the future of its child care system as the province awaits a new infusion of federal funding and faces competing pressures to expand access and deliver on affordability targets. Federal Jobs and Families Minister Patty Hajdu announced last week that an additional $5.4 billion in funding would be allocated to provinces and territories over two years to sustain the national child care program. However, advocates and experts note that these funds are primarily seen as sustaining existing operations and may not move jurisdictions significantly closer to achieving the program’s core goals.

The federal government’s national child care initiative, launched in 2021, set out to reduce average parent fees to $10 per day and create hundreds of thousands of new child care spaces across Canada by 2026. In Ontario, the average parent fee currently stands at approximately $19 per day. Since 2019, about 54,000 new child care spaces have been created within the province under the program, falling short of Ontario’s target of 86,000 spaces.

Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office has projected that the demand stimulated by lower fees would increase the required number of new spaces to approximately 220,000. This figure far exceeds both the current number of spaces created and the province’s initial target. The shortfall in available spaces has emerged as a central issue for policy makers and advocates, particularly as waitlists lengthen and many families report difficulty accessing regulated care.

While most provinces recently agreed to five-year extensions of their federal child care agreements, Ontario opted for a one-year extension. The province is seeking additional funding from Ottawa and has stated that it faces an annual shortfall of $2 billion. Ontario officials have indicated that without further federal support, the province cannot reduce parent fees to the $10-a-day target.

Education Minister Paul Calandra said he cannot comment on the sufficiency of the new $5.4 billion federal investment for Ontario until the province knows its specific allocation. In a statement, Calandra said, "Ontario has long been clear that current funding levels are not sufficient to support the long-term sustainability of the child care program. It is critical that the federal government provide an appropriate funding package by September in order to sustain the federal child care program in Ontario."

Gordon Cleveland, an Ontario-based child care policy expert and supporter of universal access, has argued that expanding the system’s capacity is currently the more urgent need. Cleveland, who specializes in the economics of child care, stated, “It’s not that expansion is more important than affordability. You’ve got to have the two together, but in terms of where does my next dollar go, my next dollar should go to expansion.”

Cleveland’s recent pre-budget submissions to the federal government recommended that Ottawa increase annual child care funding by $4 billion to $6 billion to accelerate the creation of new spaces. He suggested that provinces which have not yet reached the $10-a-day fee target, such as Ontario, could progress more gradually on affordability while prioritizing expansion. Cleveland cited studies showing that early learning and child care yield significant economic and fiscal benefits for families and governments, benefits which depend on continued system growth and widespread accessibility.

A principal barrier to rapid expansion is a persistent shortage of qualified staff. The YMCA, a major operator, reported it is licensed to manage about 98,700 child care spaces nationwide but only has approximately 67,800 open due to a shortfall of 3,750 staff. Early childhood educators (ECEs), advocates, and some operators have called for Ontario to improve recruitment and retention efforts. The province has implemented a wage floor for ECEs, but there are ongoing calls for higher wages, a wage grid, pensions, and benefits, similar to measures in effect in other provinces.

The College of Early Childhood Educators reports that ECEs in licensed child care settings are twice as likely to resign after three years as those working in school-based roles. Amber Straker, executive director of the Association of Early Childhood Educators Ontario, emphasized the need for compensation packages that encourage ECEs to view their work as a long-term career. Straker stated, “[We need] to create a system in which educators are not popping in, working for a year, two years, maybe three, and then leaving the system, but instead to create a system where educators are coming into jobs that unfurl into lifelong careers, where they’re able to see their pay increase over time and with experience, and where they’re able to feel that recognition of the incredibly important work that they do."

Ontario’s auditor general estimated that the province is short approximately 10,000 ECEs, though senior Ministry of Education staff told a legislative committee in late 2025 that the practical shortage is closer to 4,500, as many ECE roles are currently filled by non-ECE staff. The staff shortage has been cited as a driver of long waitlists and as a constraint on opening new spaces.

Morna Ballantyne, executive director of the advocacy group Child Care Now, argues that progress is required on affordability, expansion, and workforce development simultaneously. Ballantyne stated, “To transform the system, as was promised in 2021, provincial governments have to ... do three things simultaneously and use their money and plan accordingly. One is to make it more affordable, to bring down fees to an average of $10 a day. They have to expand supply and they have to address the workforce shortages, and if you don’t do all three at the same time, then you end up with an inequitable system and a poor result.”

The stakes are significant for families seeking care, for the provincial and federal governments, and for the broader economy. Advocates and experts point to evidence that accessible, affordable child care supports parental workforce participation and can yield both immediate and long-term fiscal returns to government. However, the challenge of balancing affordability, capacity, and workforce conditions persists, and no single solution has yet bridged the gap between targets and actual service availability.

Ontario’s approach—emphasizing the need for additional federal funds, highlighting workforce shortages, and debating the prioritization of space creation versus fee reduction—illustrates the complexity of implementing a universal child care system. As the September funding deadline approaches, the outcome of negotiations between Ontario and the federal government is likely to shape the province’s ability to meet both demand and affordability expectations.