Data Shows FIFA World Cup Delivers Modest Economic Impact for Toronto

Recent data indicates that the FIFA World Cup has produced only marginal economic gains for Toronto, with analysts and industry leaders noting a phenomenon of displacement rather than a substantial boost. According to payments processing firm Moneris, spending by international tourists in the Toronto area has increased in several categories since the World Cup began. However, when combining spending by locals, domestic tourists, and international visitors, the overall rise was only slightly higher than the prevailing rate of inflation during the comparable period.

Victor Matheson, a professor of economics at College of the Holy Cross who specializes in the economic impact of sporting events, attributed the modest results to a substitution effect. Matheson explained that regular visitors and business travellers were displaced by foreign tourists, resulting in little net gain for the city. He stated, "Your best case is that you displaced domestic tourism and business travelers to later in the year. Your worst case is that you displaced it, so overall spending is pretty much a wash, and an expensive one given how much Toronto and Vancouver are paying to host."

Requests for attendance figures at major downtown attractions yielded little information. The CN Tower declined to provide monthly visitor statistics, and Ripley’s Aquarium did not respond to multiple requests. This lack of detailed data makes it more difficult to assess the direct impact of World Cup events on local tourist draws.

Moneris provided a breakdown of spending patterns for the period of June 12 to June 26. Overall spending at Toronto bars and restaurants increased by 3 percent compared to approximately the same timeframe in the previous year (June 13 to 17, 2025). Spending by foreign tourists, as measured by transactions on foreign-issued credit and debit cards, rose by 34 percent at these establishments. The data also revealed that spending was up for groceries, mass merchandisers, and hotels, while apparel sales declined.

Hotel occupancy data from the Greater Toronto Hotel Association showed a decrease, with occupancy at 72 percent for the week ending June 20, compared to 88 percent during the same week the previous year. This suggests that, despite the influx of foreign visitors, overall hotel demand did not exceed typical levels and may have been offset by a reduction in other forms of travel.

Sean McCormick, Moneris's vice president of business development and data services, contrasted the World Cup’s impact with that of Taylor Swift’s recent Eras Tour in Toronto. He noted that the Swift concerts led to a 90 percent increase in apparel sales and significant rises at bars and restaurants, describing the concert series as a unique phenomenon. In comparison, McCormick remarked, "Taylor Swift is a phenomenon. Panama vs. Ghana is not a phenomenon."

Restaurants Canada CEO Kelly Higginson observed that while some bars and restaurants were busy during World Cup games, the broader impact remained unclear. She pointed out that many downtown employers closed offices on game days to avoid logistical difficulties, reducing regular traffic for restaurants in affected neighbourhoods. Higginson explained, "Restaurants in those neighbourhoods are really feeling it. They don’t have their usual traffic, and because they’re not the sports places, they’re not getting any soccer fans to make up for it."

Higginson also suggested that crowd levels at venues screening World Cup games may not be directly tied to Toronto’s host status, as bars were similarly busy during matches held in other co-host cities such as those in Mexico and the United States.

Pedro Antunes, chief economist at Signal 49 Research (formerly the Conference Board of Canada), offered a more optimistic interpretation. He acknowledged the possibility of 'crowding out' effects but argued that increased foreign spending may have stabilized some economic categories. Antunes stated, "We can never know the counterfactual of what would it have been like without the World Cup, but the economy has been pretty weak this year. We’re just coming out of a technical recession."

Matheson emphasized that, while the tangible financial benefits of hosting may be limited, other forms of value exist. He referred to the positive social and emotional effects associated with major sporting events. Matheson, an avid soccer fan, noted, "We do have some evidence these events make us happy. There’s just not much evidence they make us rich."

The findings suggest a complex interplay of factors when cities host large international sporting events. While certain sectors, such as bars and restaurants frequented by tourists, can experience a temporary uptick, the overall economic effects may be neutralized by shifts in regular local and business activity. The comparison with a major entertainment event, such as the Taylor Swift tour, further highlights the variability in economic outcomes depending on the nature of the event and its draw.

As Toronto and Vancouver continue to invest in World Cup hosting, the debate persists regarding the most effective strategies for maximizing local benefit. The latest data indicates that economic expectations for such events may need to be recalibrated to reflect the realities of visitor displacement and the broader economic context in which these events take place.